Forbes was the first to announce that the Tulsa Fire Department (TFD) told them that less than 6,200 people were in attendance at the Tulsa Rally on June 20th, 2020.
This number came from Andy Little with the TFD who also stated that the number was derived from the number of tickets scanned and doesn’t include staff, suites, or media. This was stated at 7:30 pm CST, the time the event started was indicated as 8:00 pm CST.
Officials of the Trump campaign stated that attendance is on a first-come-first-serve basis to unregistered attendees of which do not have tickets to scan. Additionally, the Secret Service registered approximately 12,000 scans via metal detectors.
Which number is correct? The more probable number based on mathematics is closer to 12,000.
Mathematical Estimation
When in doubt, use math.
The mathematical estimate came to: 10,807
That number is most likely closer to the actual number in attendance at the rally.This was based on the following image plus images below as well as other images and data such as seating charts, combined with the subsequent math:
This above image alone clearly shows more than 6200 people and it doesn’t appear to be near its peak.
Using the following capacity numbers based on Bok seating were used as well as random Suite attendance:
The above shows sections 117 through 122 at their actual capacity. Sections F10 through F05 were used along with Floor 1 through 8 to estimate the amount of floor seats and standing room only.
Since we could not find a good image of the entire floor at capacity, that leaves a significant portion of the floor empty.
Suites 201 through 242 are box seats and suites. Each of these seats up to 20 people with arena seats, however, many have couches and additional space and anyone who has been in one of these knows you can fit about 50 people in them.
To be fair, the max allowed for this estimate was 30.
Since it is impossible to tell how many people were in the suites, pseudo-random numbers between 4 and 29 were generated for all suites using the following math:
If any mathematicians know of a better way for generating the above, by all means, feel free to speak up.
Totals
This equates to an estimated 629, which is less than half of the capacity which would be closer to 1,260 if completely full. Notably, the suites looked quite full, but to be fair, this method was used. There is no way of knowing the actual number.
All section seats equal 7,278 of which 1 person was accounted to 1 seat.Floor seats used to estimate persons seated and standing came to 1,792 however, this number could be off by up to 1,000 or more attendees.
Finally, Sections 319, 320, and 321 were used at capacity for a total of 1,108 in the upper section.
Sections 301 to 315, 316 to 318 (not listed on the table above) and 322 to 329 where omitted. Whereas there were people in every single section, these were omitted to account for any missing seats throughout the venue that were counted at capacity.
The sum of these values comes to 10,807
Which does not include the arena staff, Trump campaign staff, or Secret Service.
This is shy of the Secret Service number, however, it’s likely people came in and out several times and the Secret Service had to re-screen them.
It seems unrealistic that this could have happened 1,200 times, however, be cognizant of the fact that there are 1,000 potentially not accounted for in suites, on the floor, in the upper decks, or outside of the visible areas.
12,000 is actually plausible and far more likely than "less than 6,200". However, 10,807 is the number generated from the mathematical approach.
The main point is that 6,200 is not possible.
Summary
This is misleading, misinformation, and a deliberate false claim based on a conclusion lacking the data to support it.
Claim: Only 6200 people showed up at Trump's Tulsa Rally
Fact Check Verdict: FALSE CLAIM
Claimant: Forbes
Additional Claimants: ABC, CBS, TYT, CNN, NBC, Andrew Solender, and others.
