On October 28th, 2020, during a press conference, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said that:
“...the city of Austin is a disaster ... A great city, now one of the most dangerous cities in America and definitely in Texas.”Shortly thereafter, POLITIFACT published an article⁵ titled "No, Austin is not one of the most dangerous cities in Texas, let alone in the U.S." and in doing so, made an inaccurate false claim.
POLITIFACT gave the statement a "pants-on-fire" rating which the highest ranking on their platform's TRUTH-O-METER™ system.
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| POLITIFACT "Pants-on-fire" rating |
This rating suggests an outright lie, baseless claim, or other deliberate misleading information. However the data POLITIFACT themselves use to justify their rating appears to suggest Dan Patrick's claim has data to support it.
Define Dangerous City
The number one issue with this claim is that there is no clear definition of "dangerous city". POLITIFACT decided to assume Dan Patrick meant "violent crimes", however, crime in general would be just as applicable.
Crimes that POLITIFACT doesn't feel are dangerous might not be how residents in Austin feel about them. This is a relative opinion used to premise the claim.
According to POLITIFACTS data references from the FBI, Austin is number 4 in the state of Texas for overall crimes and number 5 in violent crimes.
Austin has 41.11 crimes per 1000 residents, 125 crimes per square mile, and has a crime rating of 8 on Neighborhood scout² out of 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 where 100 is the safest city.
Austin's crime rate far exceeds both the national average at 28 and the state of Texas at 27.78. It's violent crime rate is about on par with both averages but its property crime exceeds both.
According to the FBI's national data³ reporting these numbers, Austin is 12th in property crime, 13th in overall crime, and 38th in violent crimes out of 8105 cities which puts it in the top 1% in the Unites States. In violent crimes specifically, Austin comes in at at 0.47% which lands the city in the top 0.5%.
This data supports Dan Patrick's statement in full as Austin is in fact, one of the most dangerous cities in the Unites States and certainly in Texas when compared to all other cities in the country.
Out of the top 10 cities of similar size ranging from 906,120 in Columbus, Ohio to 1,559,156 in San Antonio, Texas, Austin comes in 4th overall.
Austin does a bit better in this group on violent only crimes, coming in at number 9, however, when look at frequency per 1000 people on an annual basis, Austin does slightly worse at at number 8 of the top 10 similar sized cities.
Additionally, danger is not necessarily defined by violent crime given the phycological and other damaging affects other crimes listed can cause as well as arson presenting immediate danger.
Whereas POLITIFACT may hold the opinion that only criminals who conduct violent crimes are dangerous or that only violent crimes that result in immediate physical harm would be relevant enough to assume the term "dangerous" is defined by the presence of these crime in a city, it neither makes it a fact nor provides any clarity to the exact reference made.
Moreover, Austin is in fact one of the most dangerous cities in the United States when you consider the 8105 cities in the country², Austin ranks in the top half of 1% of dangerous places under all conditions, including the violent crime only parameters use in the claim.
Only under certain conditions with a small subset of cities presented in certain data disclosure does Austin appear "safe" related to other cities, but as is with the perception of what the term "dangerous city" refers to exactly, that does not make it a fact of which can premise an accusation of a false claim made.
Additionally, the numbers presented by POLITIFACT were inaccurate, Austin ranks 13th in the United States in overall crimes, not 25th and not in Texas where Austin ranks 4th and 5th in overall crime and violent crime.
Finally, the term "dangerous city" itself is relative and the math supports Dan Patrick rather than POLITIFACT. To residents of New York, NY or Houston, TX, the two most dangerous cities in the Unites States, Austin is not a dangerous city and would be considered safe in comparison. However, to 8067 cities in the Unites States, Austin is a more dangerous place.
Notably, even if going by violent crimes, the 37 cities more dangerous than Austin is comprised of 42,851,461 residents whereas the remaining cities that would consider Austin more dangerous would represent 150,675,382 residents in addition to the other 136,037,412 who live in smaller towns unincorporated county areas, and other jurisdictions which equates to roughly 286,712,794 people who would consider Austin a more dangerous place from a relative perspective compared to the 42, 851,461 that would not.
Therefore, Dan Patrick's statement was accurate. POLTIFACT has made a false claim.
Summary
Only in certain presentations of manipulated data does it appear to support POLITIFACTS claim, however, the data in its entirety does not. This is a misinterpretation of data.
Claim: "No, Austin is not one of the most dangerous cities in Texas, let alone in the U.S."
Fact Check Verdict: REJECTED - FALSE CLAIM
Claimant: POLITIFACT
References:
- Violent Crime. (2020). Retrieved 7 November 2020, from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/violent-crime
- Austin, TX Crime Rates and Statistics - NeighborhoodScout. (2020). Retrieved 7 November 2020, from https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/tx/austin/crime/
- Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City, 2019 - Table 8. (2020). Retrieved 7 November 2020, from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/table-8/table-8.xls/view
- Austin TX - SeaSpine. (2020). Retrieved 7 November 2020, from https://www.seaspine.com/events/base-to-summit/attachment/austin-tx/
- PolitiFact - No, Austin is not one of the most dangerous cities in Texas, let alone in the U.S. (2020). Retrieved 7 November 2020, from https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/06/dan-patrick/no-austin-not-one-most-dangerous-city-us-let-alone/
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